Geographic Variation in Food Stamp and Other Assistance Program Participation Rates: Identifying Poverty Pockets in the South

William H. Hoyt and Frank A. Scott, Jr.
University of Kentucky

A result of the 1996 welfare reforms was that TANF/AFDC rolls declined dramatically, while SSI enrollment increased slightly. Since Food Stamp participation rates are considerably lower among SSI recipients than among TANF recipients, Food Stamp enrollment was significantly affected by welfare reform even though it was not directly targeted by the legislation. Understanding changes in Food Stamp participation thus requires a simultaneous analysis of participation in TANF and SSI.

Along with welfare participation, Food Stamp participation declined in the late 1990's. While the reductions in Food Stamp participation are generally not of the same magnitude as those in welfare participation, they are, nonetheless, significant. Given relatively insignificant changes in the Food Stamp program as a result of PWROA of 1996, particularly when compared to those made with respect to welfare, the large reductions in Food Stamp participation seem puzzling. As a result of the observed reductions in participation in both programs, evaluating the link between AFDC/TANF participation and Food Stamp participation may be helpful in explaining why Food Stamp participation declined so sharply during this period.

In this project we have directly examined the link not only between Food Stamp participation and AFDC/TANF participation but also between Food Stamp participation and SSI participation using county-level data on participation in these three programs. Our results from estimation using both a sample of states throughout the U.S. and only southern states indicate that a strong relationship exists between the level of Food Stamp participation and both welfare and SSI participation, even when controlling for numerous demographic, economic, and program characteristics that are likely to affect both eligibility and participation. If anything, the link between TANF participation and Food Stamp participation in 2001 appears stronger than the link between AFDC participation and Food Stamp participation in 1995.

Food Stamp participation responds in predictable ways to the different options states now have as a result of welfare reform to treat income and resources, eligibility, and assets for the purposes of determining Food Stamp eligibility and income. County administration as opposed to state administration has a significant negative impact on participation, while exempting child support from income and expanded categorical eligibility increase participation. State-required training and employment appear to have a significant negative on Food Stamp participation, particularly in the Southern states. While One-Stop Centers appear to have little impact on participation, at least in the South, the longer the time span for certification the higher the Food Stamp participation rate.

We have also directly examined the change in Food Stamp participation, both in absolute terms (change in the number recipients per 1000 residents) and percentage terms, while controlling for the levels and changes in both AFDC/TANF and SSI participation. Absolute changes in Food Stamp participation between 1995 and 2001 are generally negatively related to the levels of both AFDC and SSI participation in 1995. However, changes in Food Stamp participation are positively related to changes in AFDC/TANF participation, suggesting that counties with large reductions in welfare case loads have large reductions in Food Stamp caseloads as well. This result, however, is not robust. When the change in Food Stamp participation is measured as a percentage change, we find that larger (percentage) reductions in welfare participation result in smaller (percentage) reductions in Food Stamp participation, indicating that Food Stamp and welfare participation might be better described as substitutes than complements.